Friday, May 23, 2014

Playing the odds, Luck or Science?





 When it comes to playing the odds, especially by way of dice throws, how much is luck and how much is fate?  Consider this:

The sum of 2d6

One thing that you can do is work out what the total of the dice is. This allows you to simulate throwing pairs of dice and see what the result is. Additionally, it's a good overview of the probability involved, since you can see which combinations are more likely. Nevertheless, the real world, or even a simulation of it, never matches completely with calculated probability. So how do we calculate it? The first thing is to work out what the range is. You can't have a total less than 2 (both dice being 1) and you can't have a total more than 12 (both dice being 6). The easiest way to see what the probabilities are is to write out the possible totals. There are 36 of them in all (6 x 6).
Total on dicePairs of diceProbability
21+11/36 = 3%
31+2, 2+12/36 = 6%
41+3, 2+2, 3+13/36 = 8%
51+4, 2+3, 3+2, 4+14/36 = 11%
61+5, 2+4, 3+3, 4+2, 5+15/36 = 14%
71+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, 6+16/36 = 17%
82+6, 3+5, 4+4, 5+3, 6+25/36 = 14%
93+6, 4+5, 5+4, 6+34/36 = 11%
104+6, 5+5, 6+43/36 = 8%
115+6, 6+52/36 = 6%
126+61/36 = 3%


So next time you use random number generators (as SPI referred to dice at one time), know that 7 is more likely to come up than any other number, but I wouldn't bet money on it :) 

And by the way, with all the games that reward you for rolling low or high, where's the games that reward you for rolling mid?  Exactly....


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